Likely Election Result
The most likely result of the general election will include
- No party with an absolute majority
- Tory party with the most seats
- Tory party unable to form a majority with likely alliance partners (Liberal Democrats, UKIP, DUP)
Constitution and procedure
Post-election, a British government is formed by a grouping, or one or more parties, whose total seats in the house of commons is a majority, taking into account the the non-aligned speaker and deputy speakers’ seats and the abstentionism of any elected representatives. (The elected Sinn Fein MPs normally choose to not take their sets in parliament.) A minority government can be formed but without reliable support from other parties it would fail a confidence vote.
Given the likely election outcome described above, the government would consist of an alliance and/or coalition of parties led by Labour and including SNP, Liberal Democrats, Green Party and Plaid Cymru. There is no constitutional and/or procedural reason why this cannot happen.
Right-wing intent to cheat the electorate
The Tories know that they will be unable to form a majority government with their disreputable friends in UKIP and the DUP. But, they have planned to retain power with a minority government regardless of the wishes of the electorate .
In the closing days of the election campaign there has been a steady drip of deliberate misrepresentation of procedure of forming a government from various right-wing commentators, including references to off-the-record comments from senior Tories. The intent of this drip-feed is to invent a spurious debate about the legitimacy of a Labour-led alliance if Labour is not the largest party and/or doesn’t have the highest number of voters. As explained earlier, such a Labour-led alliance faces no procedural or constitutional obstacle to government and any attempt to deny this government from taking office would be illegal.
If the result of the election is as predicted then from Friday morning the ousted Tories and their partners-in-fraud in the right-wing media will launch a multi-pronged assault designed to prevent the public’s choice from forming a government and to retain the rejected Cameron as prime minister. This assault will include blatant lies regarding procedure and false accusations about the legitimacy of a Labour-led alliance alongside made-up stories of unsolvable differences between the constituent parts of such an alliance and even random lies about irregularities at polling stations and at the counts.
Response to an attempted coup
Are Labour and SNP strong-willed enough to resist the Tory coup? Or, would both parties prefer a second election after a Tory minority fails a confidence vote?
If the winners of the election are incapable or unwilling to fight without constraint against the coup then the voters who rejected the Tories and their unpleasant friends in DUP and UKIP must respond. Cameron entering the house of commons alongside Farage, both happily assuming power without mandate, must not be allowed to happen. It is undemocratic and there is no reason why the response to it should be democratic.